4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 49

Chicago Bears 10 – New York Jets 31

What Actually Happened

(6:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-D.Evans left tackle to NYJ 43 for 6 yards (56-Qu.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.48 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model