Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 79

New York Jets 7 – Chicago Bears 3

(4:22) 7-B.Mann punts 62 yards to CHI 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at CHI 29 for 12 yards (55-C.Surratt).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.36 EP
53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model