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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to CIN 16, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 28 for 12 yards (42-J.Jones). PENALTY on CIN-33-T.Flowers, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced at CIN 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.24 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 26, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model