CIN @ TEN — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor

Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel

Sunday 2022-11-27 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

CIN

48.7%

TEN

51.3%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CIN offense: +0.150 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
TEN defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
QB edge to TEN: Ryan Tannehill (TEN) +0.167 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.118 EPA/dropback
TEN on 3 more days rest than CIN

Predicted Final Score

CIN 22

–

TEN 23

Projected margin: TEN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CIN

Joe Mixon RB Out Concussion

Dax Hill S Questionable Shoulder

Josh Tupou DT Questionable Calf

Joe Bachie LB Questionable Knee

Ja'Marr Chase WR Questionable Hip

TEN

Denico Autry DE Out Knee

Randy Bullock K Questionable right Calf

Ben Jones C Questionable Concussion

Kristian Fulton CB Questionable Hamstring

Hassan Haskins RB Questionable Hip

Jeffery Simmons DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 20

–

TEN 16

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 14:10 FG TEN (14:10) 11-C.Shudak 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. CIN 0 – TEN 3
Q2 11:35 FG CIN (11:35) 2-E.McPherson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. CIN 3 – TEN 3
Q2 11:30 TD TEN (11:30) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 22-D.Henry to CIN 6 for 69 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt). FUMBLES (29-C.Taylor-Britt), recovered by TEN-16-T.Burks at CIN -2. TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – TEN 9
Q2 02:00 TD CIN (2:00) 34-S.Perine right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – TEN 10
Q3 02:38 FG CIN (2:38) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. CIN 13 – TEN 10
Q3 00:42 FG TEN (:42) 11-C.Shudak 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. CIN 13 – TEN 13
Q4 13:47 TD CIN (13:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 19 – TEN 13
Q4 06:11 FG TEN (6:11) 11-C.Shudak 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. CIN 20 – TEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CIN 4th & 13 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(12:01) 4-D.Chrisman punts 48 yards to TEN 6, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 80-C.Board to TEN 18 for 12 yards (31-M.Thomas, 49-J.Bachie).
Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 22%

(7:33) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 44 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor. TEN-42-J.Jones was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on CIN-49-J.Bachie, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at CIN 7.
Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 93

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(6:48) 4-D.Chrisman punts 62 yards to TEN 31, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 80-C.Board to TEN 40 for 9 yards (51-M.Bailey).
Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 54

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP

p(convert) 48%

(5:15) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback. PENALTY on CIN-51-M.Bailey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.
Q1 CIN 4th & 13 at the 93

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(3:22) 4-D.Chrisman punts 55 yards to TEN 38, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 80-C.Board to TEN 46 for 8 yards (17-S.Morgan).
Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 15

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

(14:10) 11-C.Shudak 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 28

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 79%

(11:35) 2-E.McPherson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
Q2 CIN 4th & 11 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(9:20) 4-D.Chrisman punts 59 yards to TEN 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 80-C.Board to TEN 31 for 13 yards (31-M.Thomas; 51-M.Bailey).
Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(7:41) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to CIN 16, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 28 for 12 yards (42-J.Jones). PENALTY on CIN-33-T.Flowers, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced at CIN 16.
Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 17

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 93%

(:08) 11-C.Shudak 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Q3 TEN 4th & 16 at the 88

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(13:47) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 48 yards to CIN 40, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at 50 for 10 yards (25-H.Haskins). PENALTY on TEN-42-J.Jones, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at 50.
Q3 CIN 4th & 10 at the 45

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 35%

(11:43) 4-D.Chrisman punts 35 yards to TEN 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 80-C.Board.
Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(8:01) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
Q3 CIN 4th & 14 at the 20

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 90%

(2:38) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 6

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

(:42) 11-C.Shudak 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 20

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 90%

(6:11) 11-C.Shudak 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.