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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 17

Tennessee Titans 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(:08) 11-C.Shudak 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +3.67 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 17, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model