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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.66 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model