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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 54

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 4-D.Chrisman punts 48 yards to TEN 6, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 80-C.Board to TEN 18 for 12 yards (31-M.Thomas, 49-J.Bachie).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.91 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 54, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model