4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 51

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 44 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor. TEN-42-J.Jones was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on CIN-49-J.Bachie, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at CIN 7.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.23 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model