Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 93

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

(6:48) 4-D.Chrisman punts 62 yards to TEN 31, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 80-C.Board to TEN 40 for 9 yards (51-M.Bailey).

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth -0.15 EP
54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 93, worth -5.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model