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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 5

Miami Dolphins 17 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 5, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP