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Houston Texans

HC Lovie Smith
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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2022-11-27 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

HOU
22.6%
MIA
77.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.106 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIA offense: +0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): +0.248 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA on 7 more days rest than HOU
  • MIA defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 17
–
MIA 27
Projected margin: MIA by 10 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

HOU

Derek Stingley CB Out Hamstring

MIA

Raheem Mostert RB Doubtful Knee
Teddy Bridgewater QB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 15
–
MIA 30

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:26 FG MIA (10:26) 7-J.Sanders 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. HOU 0 – MIA 3
  • Q1 03:06 TD MIA (3:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 81-D.Smythe for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – MIA 9
  • Q2 12:27 TD MIA (12:27) 23-J.Wilson right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – MIA 16
  • Q2 06:26 FG MIA (6:26) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. HOU 0 – MIA 20
  • Q2 05:10 TD MIA (5:10) (Shotgun) 3-K.Allen pass short right to 88-J.Akins to HOU 18 for 7 yards (28-K.Kohou, 21-E.Rowe). FUMBLES (21-E.Rowe), RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at HOU 16. 25-X.Howard for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – MIA 26
  • Q2 00:01 FG MIA (:01) 7-J.Sanders 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. HOU 0 – MIA 30
  • Q3 03:22 TD HOU (3:22) 33-D.Ogunbowale up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – MIA 30
  • Q4 12:56 TD HOU (12:56) (Shotgun) 3-K.Allen pass short left to 88-J.Akins for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 12 – MIA 30
  • Q4 09:04 FG HOU (9:04) 7-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 15 – MIA 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:32) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to MIA 19, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-C.Wilson ran ob at MIA 34 for 15 yards (23-E.Murray).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 20 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 81%

    (10:26) 7-J.Sanders 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 96%

    (4:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 14-T.Sherfield to HOU 3 for 9 yards (48-C.Harris). HOU-48-C.Harris was injured during the play.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:13) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to MIA 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 22%

    (13:26) 4-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:01) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to MIA 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (6:26) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to MIA 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 16 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 93%

    (:01) 7-J.Sanders 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:36) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to MIA 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:42) 4-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to HOU 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 25-D.King pushed ob at HOU 36 for 11 yards (52-E.Roberts).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:58) 4-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to HOU 16, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 1-T.Smith pushed ob at HOU 33 for 17 yards (4-T.Morstead).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (9:04) 7-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (7:25) 4-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to HOU 15, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 1-T.Smith ran ob at HOU 41 for 26 yards (4-T.Morstead; 43-A.Van Ginkel).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 20 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (4:56) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to MIA 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-C.Wilson ran ob at MIA 21 for 1 yard.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:31) 4-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to HOU 32, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 25-D.King to HOU 40 for 8 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 22%

    (3:43) 3-K.Allen up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (94-C.Wilkins; 45-D.Riley).