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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 17

Miami Dolphins 27 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(:01) 7-J.Sanders 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +3.99 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 17, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model