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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 10

Houston Texans 12 – Miami Dolphins 30

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 7-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.44 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 10, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP