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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 30 – Houston Texans 15

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 4-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to HOU 15, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 1-T.Smith ran ob at HOU 41 for 26 yards (4-T.Morstead; 43-A.Van Ginkel).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model