4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 27

Miami Dolphins 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 7-J.Sanders 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.73 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model