Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 20 at the 69

Houston Texans 15 – Miami Dolphins 30

(4:56) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to MIA 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-C.Wilson ran ob at MIA 21 for 1 yard.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.48 EP
76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model