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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 51

Houston Texans 15 – Miami Dolphins 30

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 3-K.Allen up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (94-C.Wilkins; 45-D.Riley).

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.00 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 51, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model