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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 7

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +3.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.52 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 7, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.75 EP