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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2022-11-27 · 16:05 Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

LV
37.1%
SEA
62.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • SEA on 7 more days rest than LV
  • LV defense: +0.111 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Geno Smith (SEA): +0.120 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

LV 21
–
SEA 25
Projected margin: SEA by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

LV

Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Calf
Luke Masterson LB Questionable Ribs
Kolton Miller T Questionable Shoulder
Kendal Vickers DT Questionable Back

SEA

D'Wayne Eskridge WR Out Hand
Abraham Lucas T Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 40
–
SEA 34

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 28 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:39 TD SEA (14:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – SEA 6
  • Q1 09:30 TD LV (9:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 22-A.Abdullah for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-22-A.Abdullah, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. LV 6 – SEA 7
  • Q1 04:27 FG SEA (4:27) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. LV 7 – SEA 10
  • Q2 13:38 FG SEA (13:38) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. LV 7 – SEA 13
  • Q2 10:12 TD LV (10:12) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 10-M.Hollins for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 13 – SEA 13
  • Q2 08:36 TD LV (8:36) 28-J.Jacobs right tackle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 20 – SEA 13
  • Q2 05:27 TD SEA (5:27) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 21 – SEA 19
  • Q2 00:14 FG LV (:14) 2-D.Carlson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 24 – SEA 20
  • Q3 11:55 TD SEA (11:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker left guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 24 – SEA 26
  • Q3 05:06 FG LV (5:06) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 27 – SEA 27
  • Q4 05:44 TD SEA (5:44) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 25-T.Homer for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 27 – SEA 33
  • Q4 02:00 TD LV (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 33 – SEA 34
  • Q5 04:32 TD LV (4:32) 28-J.Jacobs right guard for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 40 – SEA 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (4:27) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:52) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to SEA 26, Center-47-T.Sieg. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 37 for 11 yards (58-D.Butler; 59-L.Masterson).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 94%

    (13:38) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 45%

    (:42) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs left end ran ob at SEA 35 for 8 yards (56-J.Brooks).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.75 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (5:06) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:22) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to LV 28, Center-46-C.Tinker. 84-K.Cole to LV 27 for -1 yards (44-N.Bellore). PENALTY on LV-33-R.Teamer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 28.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 28%

    (:51) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to SEA 9, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 24%

    (9:01) 28-J.Jacobs left end to LV 47 for -1 yards (57-C.Barton, 93-S.Harris).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 15 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to LV 12, Center-46-C.Tinker. 84-K.Cole MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 9. 84-K.Cole to LV 9 for no gain (22-T.Brown).