Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 72

Seattle Seahawks 27 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to LV 28, Center-46-C.Tinker. 84-K.Cole to LV 27 for -1 yards (44-N.Bellore). PENALTY on LV-33-R.Teamer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model