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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 52

Las Vegas Raiders 27 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 28-J.Jacobs left end to LV 47 for -1 yards (57-C.Barton, 93-S.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.58 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model