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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(:43) 3-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.78 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model