4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
TB Away

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2022-11-27 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

TB
49.6%
CLE
50.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE defense: +0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • TB on 7 more days rest than CLE
  • CLE offense: +0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 22
–
CLE 23
Projected margin: CLE by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

TB

Russell Gage WR Out Hamstring
Luke Goedeke G Out Foot
Leonard Fournette RB Doubtful Hip
Vita Vea DT Questionable Foot

CLE

Greg Newsome CB Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 17
–
CLE 23

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:53 TD CLE (10:53) (Shotgun) 10-A.Schwartz right end for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Handoff to 27 K.Hunt pitch to 10. A.Schwartz TB 0 – CLE 6
  • Q1 05:17 TD TB (5:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-C.Godwin for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-21-D.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. TB 6 – CLE 7
  • Q1 02:27 FG CLE (2:27) 3-C.York 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. TB 7 – CLE 10
  • Q2 00:43 FG TB (:43) 3-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 10 – CLE 10
  • Q3 07:44 TD TB (7:44) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 41-K.Kieft for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – CLE 10
  • Q4 00:37 TD CLE (:37) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 17 – CLE 16
  • Q5 00:24 TD CLE (:24) 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-22-K.Neal, Defensive Offside, declined. TB 17 – CLE 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 68%

    (2:27) 3-C.York 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (1:19) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to CLE 20, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 32 for 12 yards (29-R.White).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (14:32) 27-K.Hunt left guard to CLE 43 for 2 yards (45-D.White).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 20%

    (12:09) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (10:00) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to CLE 30, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 17 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 89%

    (3:58) 3-C.York 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:00) 12-T.Brady up the middle to TB 40 for 2 yards (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 85%

    (:43) 3-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 18%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Edwards [50-V.Vea] at TB -2. Touchback.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:06) 5-J.Camarda punts 62 yards to CLE 13, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 42 for 29 yards (57-U.Gilbert).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 20%

    (5:10) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to TB 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (3:06) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to CLE 22, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 38 for 16 yards (88-C.Otton).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 17 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to TB 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 1-J.Darden to TB 30 for 17 yards (51-J.Kunaszyk).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 43%

    (12:41) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 38%

    (8:26) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 2-A.Cooper.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 28%

    (6:59) 5-J.Camarda punts 43 yards to CLE 5, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-27-Z.McCollum.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 20 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:41) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to TB 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 20 at the 90 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:21) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to CLE 42, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to TB 46 for 12 yards (30-D.Delaney).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 12 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (:37) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.