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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 53

Cleveland Browns 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Edwards [50-V.Vea] at TB -2. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +0.95 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 53, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model