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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cleveland Browns
4th & 9 at the 44
Cleveland Browns 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
What Actually Happened
(8:26) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 2-A.Cooper.
The Three Options
GO
-0.10 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.59 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.07 EP
KICK
-0.87 EP
- 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
- 62% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT
-0.47 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
