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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 20 at the 90

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to CLE 42, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to TB 46 for 12 yards (30-D.Delaney).

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 90, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 47, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model