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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 12

Cleveland Browns 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(:37) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.74 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.92 EP