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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 33

Cleveland Browns 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 3-C.York 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.47 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model