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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to CLE 20, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 32 for 12 yards (29-R.White).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 25, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP