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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 59

Cleveland Browns 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:32) 27-K.Hunt left guard to CLE 43 for 2 yards (45-D.White).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.07 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model