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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 71

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 17-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to BUF 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 20-N.Hines to BUF 33 for no gain (49-J.Cardona).

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.97 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 71, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 29, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP