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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Thursday 2022-12-01 · 20:15 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

BUF
49.7%
NE
50.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.107 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.193 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.189 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE offense: -0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 22
–
NE 23
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

BUF

Dion Dawkins T Out Ankle
Von Miller LB Out Knee
Quintin Morris TE Questionable Illness

NE

Damien Harris RB Out Thigh
Isaiah Wynn T Out Foot
Trenton Brown T Questionable Illness
David Andrews C Questionable Thigh
Yodny Cajuste T Questionable Calf
Marcus Jones CB Questionable Ankle
Jakobi Meyers WR Questionable Shoulder
Jalen Mills CB Questionable Groin
Jabrill Peppers S Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 24
–
NE 10

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:06 FG BUF (8:06) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 3 – NE 0
  • Q1 04:55 TD NE (4:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-Ma.Jones for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – NE 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD BUF (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – NE 7
  • Q2 05:34 TD BUF (5:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-13-Ja.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined. BUF 16 – NE 7
  • Q4 14:34 TD BUF (14:34) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – NE 7
  • Q4 01:57 FG NE (1:57) 6-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy. BUF 24 – NE 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:07) 17-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to BUF 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 20-N.Hines to BUF 33 for no gain (49-J.Cardona).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 12 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 80%

    (8:06) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:21) 17-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to BUF 44, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:13) 17-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to BUF 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 20-N.Hines to BUF 29 for 4 yards (18-M.Slater).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:04) 8-S.Martin punts 54 yards to NE 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 15 for no gain (33-S.Neal).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:11) 17-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to BUF 43, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 81%

    (:15) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 11 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 53%

    (11:53) 8-S.Martin punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 48%

    (8:34) 17-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to BUF 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-41-B.Schooler.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:17) 17-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to BUF 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:46) 8-S.Martin punts 40 yards to NE 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 89%

    (4:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 11-T.Thornton to BUF 11 for 12 yards (21-J.Poyer).