Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 54

New England Patriots 7 – Buffalo Bills 24

(12:17) 17-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to BUF 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.88 EP
62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 54, worth -2.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model