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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 24 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 8-S.Martin punts 40 yards to NE 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.98 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP