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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 23

New England Patriots 7 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(4:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 11-T.Thornton to BUF 11 for 12 yards (21-J.Poyer).

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.19 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 23, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model