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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Buffalo Bills
4th & 12 at the 30
Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 0
What Actually Happened
(8:06) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
The Three Options
GO
+0.07 EP
-
28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.67 EP
- 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP
KICK
+0.81 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
- 20% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
