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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 76

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to IND 32, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 33-D.Flowers. PENALTY on DAL-1-K.Joseph, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at IND 32.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.75 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 76, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 34, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model