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Indianapolis Colts

HC Jeff Saturday
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DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2022-12-04 · 20:20 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 11.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

IND
22.6%
DAL
77.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.161 vs Matt Ryan (IND) -0.064 EPA/dropback
  • DAL offense: +0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL on 4 more days rest than IND

Predicted Final Score

IND 18
–
DAL 28
Projected margin: DAL by 10 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

IND

Kenny Moore CB Out Ankle
Braden Smith T Out Illness
Isaiah Rodgers CB Questionable Knee
Jelani Woods TE Questionable Shoulder

DAL

Anthony Barr LB Questionable Hamstring
Quinton Bohanna DT Questionable Knee
Trevon Diggs CB Questionable Illness
Michael Gallup WR Questionable Illness
Jayron Kearse S Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 19
–
DAL 54

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:53 FG IND (10:53) 7-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. IND 3 – DAL 0
  • Q1 04:58 TD DAL (4:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 3 – DAL 6
  • Q1 02:42 TD IND (2:42) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 16-A.Dulin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – DAL 7
  • Q2 10:18 TD DAL (10:18) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – DAL 13
  • Q2 01:51 FG IND (1:51) 7-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. IND 13 – DAL 14
  • Q2 00:20 TD DAL (:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 13-M.Gallup for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – DAL 20
  • Q3 03:49 TD IND (3:49) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-A.Pierce for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – DAL 21
  • Q4 13:55 TD DAL (13:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 13-M.Gallup for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – DAL 27
  • Q4 13:46 TD DAL (13:46) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox to IND 33 for 6 yards (33-D.Clark). FUMBLES (33-D.Clark), RECOVERED by DAL-28-M.Hooker at IND 38. 28-M.Hooker for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – DAL 34
  • Q4 09:54 TD DAL (9:54) 20-T.Pollard left end for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – DAL 40
  • Q4 06:11 TD DAL (6:11) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – DAL 46
  • Q4 02:31 TD DAL (2:31) (Shotgun) 34-M.Davis up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – DAL 53

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (13:42) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to IND 32, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 33-D.Flowers. PENALTY on DAL-1-K.Joseph, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at IND 32.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 75%

    (10:53) 7-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 85%

    (6:17) 21-E.Elliott left guard to IND 21 for 6 yards (5-S.Gilmore, 44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (15:00) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:21) 6-M.Haack punts 40 yards to DAL 44, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 14 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 30%

    (4:43) 6-M.Haack punts 40 yards to DAL 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (1:51) 7-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:30) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to IND 23, Center-45-M.Overton. 33-D.Flowers to IND 27 for 4 yards (1-K.Joseph, 33-D.Clark).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:36) 6-M.Haack punts 39 yards to IND 49, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 13 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 30%

    (11:50) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to IND 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 33-D.Flowers.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 96%

    (5:04) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to DAL 12 for 1 yard (91-C.Watkins).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (12:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to IND 36 for 5 yards (26-D.Bland).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 71 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-A.Pierce to IND 42 for 13 yards (27-J.Kearse). FUMBLES (27-J.Kearse), touched at IND 42, RECOVERED by DAL-55-L.Vander Esch at IND 42. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-A.Pierce to IND 41 for 12 yards (27-J.Kearse).