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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 16

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 7-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.93 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 16, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model