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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 75

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to IND 23, Center-45-M.Overton. 33-D.Flowers to IND 27 for 4 yards (1-K.Joseph, 33-D.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model