Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 19 – Dallas Cowboys 47

What Actually Happened

(4:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-A.Pierce to IND 42 for 13 yards (27-J.Kearse). FUMBLES (27-J.Kearse), touched at IND 42, RECOVERED by DAL-55-L.Vander Esch at IND 42. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-A.Pierce to IND 41 for 12 yards (27-J.Kearse).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

What Happened

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.23 EP
53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.42 EP