4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.55 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 19, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model