4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 20 at the 80

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 5-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to CIN 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 35 for 10 yards (1-J.McKinnon).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.91 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 37, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model