Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.221 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- CIN offense: +0.174 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- QB edge to KC: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.122 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.284 EPA/dropback
- KC defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 13
KC
CIN
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:54 TD CIN (8:54) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – CIN 6
- Q1 04:00 FG KC (4:00) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 3 – CIN 7
- Q2 13:39 TD CIN (13:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 85-T.Higgins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CIN-1-J.Chase, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. KC 3 – CIN 13
- Q2 02:28 TD KC (2:28) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-J.McKinnon for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 9 – CIN 14
- Q3 12:07 TD KC (12:07) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 16 – CIN 14
- Q3 07:20 FG CIN (7:20) 2-E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. KC 17 – CIN 17
- Q3 03:57 TD KC (3:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – CIN 17
- Q4 14:52 FG CIN (14:52) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. KC 24 – CIN 20
- Q4 09:00 TD CIN (9:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 25-C.Evans for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 24 – CIN 26
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%
(4:00) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
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Q2 KC 4th & 20 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(11:31) 5-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to CIN 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 35 for 10 yards (1-J.McKinnon).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EPp(convert) 53%
(9:34) 4-D.Chrisman punts 40 yards to KC 19, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 84-Ju.Watson.
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Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 66%
(6:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-J.Smith-Schuster to CIN 32 for 5 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%
(:51) 11-T.Taylor right end to KC 7 for -3 yards (8-C.Dunlap).
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Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 18Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 93%
(7:20) 2-E.McPherson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
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Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%
(3:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 89%
(14:52) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.
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Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 37 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 66%
(3:24) 7-H.Butker 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.