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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 59

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 4-D.Chrisman punts 40 yards to KC 19, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 84-Ju.Watson.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.53 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP