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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Cincinnati Bengals
4th & 1 at the 4
Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 10
What Actually Happened
(:51) 11-T.Taylor right end to KC 7 for -3 yards (8-C.Dunlap).
The Three Options
GO
+4.15 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.02 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 4, worth +0.14 EP
KICK
+2.29 EP
- 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT
-0.05 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
