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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 23

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(14:52) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.92 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 33, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model