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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 37

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 7-H.Butker 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.50 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model