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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to LAC 9, Center-47-T.Sieg. 1-D.Carter to LAC 32 for 23 yards (47-T.Sieg).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 27, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model