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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
Sunday 2022-12-04 · 16:25 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

LAC
48.2%
LV
51.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV defense: +0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LAC defense: +0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 24
–
LV 25
Projected margin: LV by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

LAC

Corey Linsley C Out Concussion
Trey Pipkins T Out Knee
Mike Williams WR Out Ankle
Breiden Fehoko DT Questionable Illness
Drue Tranquill LB Questionable Illness
Nasir Adderley S Questionable Thumb

LV

Jesper Horsted TE Out Concussion
Kendal Vickers DT Out Back
Andrew Billings DT Questionable Fibula
Brandon Bolden RB Questionable Calf
Lester Cotton G Questionable Calf
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Calf
Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 20
–
LV 27

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:15 TD LAC (5:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 10-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 23-B.Callahan (26-A.Samuel) at LV 26. 23-B.Callahan for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – LV 0
  • Q2 11:41 FG LAC (11:41) 15-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 10 – LV 0
  • Q2 07:57 TD LV (7:57) 28-J.Jacobs right tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 10 – LV 6
  • Q2 02:22 FG LV (2:22) 2-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 10 – LV 10
  • Q2 00:31 FG LAC (:31) 15-C.Dicker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 13 – LV 10
  • Q3 14:36 TD LV (14:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – LV 16
  • Q3 11:01 TD LV (11:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – LV 23
  • Q4 14:53 FG LV (14:53) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 13 – LV 27
  • Q4 08:44 TD LAC (8:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 19 – LV 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (13:29) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to LAC 9, Center-47-T.Sieg. 1-D.Carter to LAC 32 for 23 yards (47-T.Sieg).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (11:21) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 31-N.Niemann. 25-J.Kelley up the middle to LAC 44 for 5 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 32%

    (9:50) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to LV 6, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 94%

    (6:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to LV 16 for 1 yard (55-C.Jones).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:22) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 9 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 93%

    (11:41) 15-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (5:46) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to LV 21, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 67%

    (2:22) 2-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 95%

    (:31) 15-C.Dicker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 73%

    (11:30) 15-C.Dicker 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:37) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to LV 20, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.89 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%

    (14:53) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (12:57) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LAC 33 for 2 yards (55-C.Jones).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 12 at the 35
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 71%

    (8:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 55%

    (5:20) 6-A.Cole punts 33 yards to LAC 9, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 55%

    (2:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 1-D.Carter.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 60%

    (:31) 6-A.Cole punts 30 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-59-L.Masterson.